Paars Plus negotiations fail

The news from the Binnenhof (explanation here) is that the negotiations to form a Paars Plus (Purple Plus) cabinet featuring the VVD, PvdA, D66 and GL have collapsed, with the VVD and PvdA saying that there wasn’t any room for further compromise. D66 and GL have said they thought there was still some hope, but as they are smaller parties it isn’t really relevant — they will now be left behind as the VVD tries to find other combinations.

It looks as though one of the major stumbling blocks was cuts to the budget. While all parties agreed that significant cuts were necessary, the amount they were willing to cut varied: the PvdA didn’t want to go much above 10 billion euros; the VVD wanted 20 billion but was willing to drop to 18 billion at the very least, while D66 and GL were somewhere in between. Either way, this combination looks to be well beyond rescue.

What’s next? Well, the Queen has appointed Ruud Lubbers, CDA Prime Minister from 1982-1994 as the new informateur. Lubbers held brief talks with all the party leaders, and has decided to try to the VVD/PVV/CDA option again, which would have the smallest possible majority of 76. This was probably prompted by the PvdA’s continued refusal to consider a VVD/PvdA/CDA coalition.

This weekend, the CDA MPs will meet to discuss a VVD/PVV/CDA coalition. The party is, at best, very wary of working with Geert Wilders and there would be a lot of internal dissent if it did. However, there are few other options. My hunch is that there may be new elections by the year’s end if this right-wing coalition is unable to be formed.

There is one final option, but it would be a very unusual and controversial one: the VVD admits that it has failed to put together a governing coalition, and the opportunity to lead the next government falls to the PvdA, the second-largest party in parliament. The leader of the SP, Emile Roemer, has come up with an innovative proposal, now known as the “Roemer-variant”, whereby Job Cohen (PvdA leader) would be at the head of a PvdA/CDA/SP/GL coalition (76 seats). Roemer has written a 10-page document explaining what compromises would have to be made for such a coalition to be feasible. The major stumbling block here would be the distrust between the CDA and the PvdA after the collapse of Balkenende IV. However, with the main protagonists of that tussle now retired from politics (Balkenende and Bos), there may be an opportunity to reset relations. Even if this occurred, the CDA would no doubt be as wary of entering a government with three left-wing parties as the VVD was about Paars Plus. Nevertheless, it’s an impressive proposal, and Roemer has clearly put a lot of thought into this, so it should be on the table if the current round of negotiations fail.

I suspect these negotiations may continue for a while yet, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that whatever coalition emerges (assuming fresh elections aren’t called) will be an unstable one, although in this climate I tend to think that it will be. Negotiations for the first Paars governing period took months and months, and yet the government lasted almost two full terms, which is very rare in Dutch politics.

To be continued (again) …

6. The Right-Wing Parties

Some people will tell you that the Netherlands doesn’t really have a (secular) conservative, right-wing party like they do in other parts of Europe and the world. In a sense, they have a point. In any case, there certainly is not a typical right-wing party that has a stable position in parliament. While some might point to the VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy), I’d argue they belong to a different political tradition, which will be the topic of my next post, coincidentally my last post on the various political parties.

In any event, there is certainly at least one party which mostly deserves to be called “right-wing”, along with another two parties (one no longer in existence) which have similar backgrounds and ideas.

Update on Coalition Negotiations

My apologies for my absence; house-hunting and other changes in my life have pushed this down my priority list. I still have a number of posts on the various grouping of political parties and the political events of the last fifteen years to complete as well.

Anyway, I’ll kick this blog back into action with an update on how negotiations for a new coalition government in the Netherlands are going.

Once the final election results are known — these were announced within a week, and the seat totals didn’t change from my last update in the liveblog post — all the party leaders take turns in visiting the Queen for a cup of tea and brief discussion, where they advise her on what kind of coalition they think the results demand. This advice is usually fair and frank; a party which polled three seats and has radically different views to everyone else will not insist that they are placed front-and-centre in any coalition government. Most leaders acknowledged the strong gains made by the VVD and PVV, and indicated that a coalition including those two parties would seem to be the logical outcome.

Since then, here’s what’s happened:

* The VVD and PVV began talks, and indicated that they wished for the CDA to join them. Together the three parties had 76 seats, the smallest possible majority. However, the CDA insisted that it would not come to the negotiating table until the VVD and PVV had worked through their differences. This never really happened, so this coalition option was put aside quite quickly.

* VVD leader Mark Rutte said that his second option was a centrist VVD/CDA/PvdA coalition. This time PvdA leader Job Cohen threw a spanner in the works, insisting that he wanted a progressive coalition, and this combination did not fulfil this criteria.

* With great reluctance, the VVD began discussions with PvdA, D66 and GroenLinks on a “Purple-Plus” coalition. After a bit of a stop-start in negotiations, it looks as though the parties will indeed form the next governing coalition, which Greens leader Femke Halsema prefers to call “Purple-Green”. The governing agreement is going to lack the detail and rigidity of those of previous governments, in recognition of the fact that there are huge differences between the VVD and the other parties. Negotiations are in full swing, with compulsory breaks whenever the Dutch soccer team is playing a World Cup match(!)

To be continued …

Liveblog: 2010 Tweede Kamer Elections

Good morning everyone! (Well, it’s morning here – 5:30 to be precise.) I’ll be liveblogging the results as they come in — all times are Dutch local time.

You can follow the results online here.

03:40 - Okay, I’m signing off for now. Almost 97% of the votes have been counted, Mark Rutte has given a cautious but enthusiastic victory speech which I don’t think gave away any clues as to who he wants to govern with. Here are the last final results for the night:

VVD: 31
PvdA: 30
PVV: 24
CDA: 21
SP: 15
D66: 10
GL: 10
CU: 5
SGP: 2
PvdD: 2

So, for the first time in history, the Dutch PM will be a member of the VVD.

03:27 - Mark Rutte has returned to the VVD election party and is giving his victory speech. The PvdA party ended on a somber note with one of their MPs thanking everyone for all their work. Cohen did not return.

02:40 - With 88% counted, the VVD has pulled ahead. They are now at 31 seats, while the PvdA has lost a seat to PvdD (Animals) and is on 30 seats. VVD leader Mark Rutte is expected to declare victory soon.

02:35 – 86% counted, and the PVV has gained a seat (now 24) at the expense of D66 (now 10). I think the VVD has won this; they’re 44,000 votes in front, which is about two-thirds of a seat. Expat votes are still to be counted, and they usually favour the VVD. While Dutch TV is not calling it until all the votes are counted, it’s hard to see the PvdA coming back from this.

5. The Left-Wing Parties

If you were surprised at the influence Christian parties still wield in the Netherlands, here’s another surprise, already hinted at earlier: there has never been a truly progressive government in the Netherlands. That is, at least one of the parties in any government has been from the conservative or right-wing side of politics. The fact that the Netherlands has still managed to push through a number of progressive reforms over the years is indicative of two things: 1) the arts of compromise and negotiation which have seen some very unlikely alliances in the passing of bills, and 2) that what is seen as conservative and/or right-wing in the Netherlands is generally more progressive or to the left than its equivalents in other countries.

There are currently three parties in parliament which identify as left, and a fourth which I’ve bundled in as their policies are fairly similar to the others.

4. The Christian Parties

Given that the Netherlands is stereotypically known for its liberal social policies such as the decriminalisation of cannabis and the regulation of prostitution, it may be surprising to hear that parties advocating Christian values still play a large role in its politics.

Christian parties have been around since the beginnings of Dutch democracy; there have been 27 to date. They are usually separated into two camps: Catholic parties and Protestant parties, and the Protestant grouping can be further subdivided. For many years, the KVP (Katholieke Volkspartij – Catholic People’s Party) was a dominant force in the mostly-Protestant Netherlands, perhaps due to the fact that the Protestant movement was split into more parties. Within the last few decades, the waning Christian vote has seen a number of parties merge into single entities, and today there are three parties in parliament which identify as Christian.

3. Dutch Political Culture

There are a few key differences between the Dutch parliamentary system and the Westminster one that have a big impact on how politics is played out. Firstly, like in America, members of Cabinet do not have to be MPs. In fact, if an MP is promoted to the Cabinet, they lose their seat in parliament and are replaced by another member of their party (the next one down on the list). This means that there is a clear Cabinet versus Parliament divide, reflected by the seating arrangement in the Tweede Kamer: the Prime Minister and Cabinet sit at the front of the room, while the 150 MPs sit in a semi-circle facing them. Interestingly, the seating in parliament is not arranged in a government parties versus opposition parties format, but according to the party’s position on the political spectrum. This means that coalition parties don’t always sit next to each other. Not that it really matters, as you’ll see MPs walking all over the chamber anyway.

The next one is Question Time, which is held between 14:00-15:00 each Tuesday. The Dutch are known for being rational and blunt, and Question Time (Het Vragenuur – The Question Hour) is no exception. There is certainly none of the over-the-top “drama” we see in the Australian (and to a lesser extent) British parliaments. The questions are detailed and accompanied by a short presentation from the MPs asking them. While this means only a few questions can be dealt with each week, it is a good way to get in depth information about a particular issue, and this is also when you see the governing parties asking critical questions of their own Cabinet. 

Lastly, a spoed debat (emergency debate) is an almost-immediate recall of the Tweede Kamer that can be demanded by any party in the chamber. There doesn’t seem to be any limit on how often this can happen, and there are complaints that some parties abuse this process. Nevertheless, it is a highly effective tool with which to hold the government accountable, although it can also be used to discuss issues pertaining to opposition parties. The format is more dramatic, with short questions and answers – necessary because all parties participate. It can also be very tactical, as sometimes there are multiple parties trying to extract the same information from the Cabinet, leading to inter-party coordination and cooperation on questions.