LIVEBLOG: 2011 Provincial Elections

Good morning from Australia, where it passed 7:30am a few minutes ago. It is just past 21:30 in the Netherlands; the polls closed half-an-hour ago. All times from now on are Dutch local time, which is GMT +1.

Exit polls are predicting the following:

CDA: 13.6% (- 11.4)
VVD: 20.0% (+ 1.9)
PvdA: 17.5% (- 0.4)
PVV: 11.8% (+ 11.8)
SP: 10.7% (- 4.1)
D66: 8.0% (+ 5.4)
GL: 6.4% (+ 0.3)
CU/SGP: 6.0% (- 2.8)
PvdD: 1.9% (- 0.5)
Others: 1.3% (- 3.0)

I’ll work these percentages out in seats soon, or maybe I’ll just wait for Dutch television to do it for me!

21:38 – One result is already in – the small island of Vlieland north of Friesland. It doesn’t entirely match up with the predicted trend, as the PvdA has gained a few percent there. The prediction for the “Others” category includes the regional parties under the OSF (Independent Senate Group). If they’ve really lost that much of the vote, their seat could be in trouble.

21:48 – Second result is in: Rozendaal in Gelderland. Gains for D66, VVD and PVV (although at 6%, well below the predicted national average). Also a small gain for GroenLinks of 0.2%, but all the other parties have lost ground.

21:59 – I was going to post the current predictions for the make-up the Senate, but with the results from only two small councils in, they’re rather distorted (i.e. the current results have the PvdA gaining five seats, which I can tell you is NOT going to happen unless the polls have been wildly inaccurate, and that would be very unusual).

22:06 – Third result: Schiermonnikoog (another of the small islands north of Friesland). Large swing away from the PvdA of 5%, but they remain the largest party there despite a strong challenge from the VVD. The CDA has not lost as much ground here as in Vlieland and Rozendaal, but that’s still a negative swing of 5%. D66 went from 2.4% to 7.0%, and one percent gain for GroenLinks. The other notable result is that the Friesian National Party has lost a percent in both Vlieland and Schiermonnikoog. While these places are not FNP strongholds, it looks like they might lose a seat in the provincial parliament. As the largest party in the OSF, it’s not a good sign for the independents.

22:14 – Zuidhorn (Groningen) has reported in – the largest result so far. VVD, D66 have gained votes, everyone else has lost them. I’ll stop mentioning the PVV unless there’s a big result, as obviously they’re going to gain everywhere since this is their first provincial elections. I mentioned in my preview post the other day that the PVV isn’t popular in the northern provinces, and this shows in the three results from the north so far: ranging from 5 – 8%, they’re all well below the predicted national average.

22:20 – Boxmeer (Noord Brabant) has come in: this is the home of SP parliamentary leader Emile Roemer, and it’s a big win for the SP. They’ve increased their vote from 23% to 31% to come out on top. The CDA has been crunched here, falling from 43% to 24%. The PvdA lost 4.5%, with a 3% gain to the VVD to bring them to third place with 17%. A small gain for GroenLinks, and D66 have more than tripled to 4.5%. The PVV managed 10% here, their best result so far, but certainly won’t be their best for the night.

22:35 – Results are starting to stream in – seven more since Boxmeer, so I’m going to be more picky and focus on unusual results and large cities.

22:42 – Winsum (Groningen) isn’t a large city, but given my interest in the province of Groningen, I’ll take a look at this one. As with elsewhere, the CDA has been smashed, going from 26% to 15%. Gains for VVD, D66, GroenLinks, and also the PvdA, which has become the largest party. Once again, the PVV’s result is below-average at 5.3%.

23:00 – Okay, results are coming in very quickly, so a couple of points:
* As with the national elections last year, the demise of the CDA is causing the SGP or SP to suddenly become the highest-polling party in a number of areas – for the SGP, in the Bible Belt, and the SP are taking over in the (formerly) industrial areas of the east.
* The first results have come in from Limburg, one of the PVV’s strongholds, and while they haven’t topped the poll anywhere yet, they came second to the VVD in Roermond with 19%, and their results in the southern parts of the country are all in double-digits.

23:05 – First really big result for the PVV comes from the Limburg council of Kerkrade. They’ve topped the poll with 25% with the PvdA in second and a big loss to SP (down 12.4%), who came second by a couple of percent to the CDA last time. In a number of southern councils where the PVV aren’t able to match the CDA, they’re still polling very close to or more than the PvdA. In other news, the CDA super-stronghold of Tubbergen remains so, but this time with “only” 55% voting for the Christian Democrats, as opposed to 74% in 2007. The PVV (9.3%) and VVD (+5%) are the main beneficiaries, although D66, GroenLinks and the PvdA have all made modest gains.

23:12 – The PVV continues to smash its way through Limburg, polling 18.9% in Meerssen, not far behind the CDA at 19.7% (down from 41.5%) and 23.2% in Simpleveld (CDA holds on to top the poll with 24.6%). They are going to have a big impact on the Limburg provincial parliament, and could well end up being the largest party there.

23:45 – First big cities have come in: Amsterdam and Wageningen. In Amsterdam, the PvdA has bucked the trend and achieved a 5% swing to 29% to remain the highest-polling party. The PVV comes in at 8.8%, with the other big winner D66, jumping from 6% to 15% and bumping the VVD off second place. This isn’t a surprise, as D66 always do particularly well in the large cities. All other parties have lost ground – GroenLinks and SP have lost 5% and 8% respectively, and the CDA, never popular in atheist Amsterdam have been reduced to a hapless 3% of the vote. In Wageningen, D66 have quadrupled their vote to 19% and are equal first with the PvdA. GroenLinks remains in second place, holding on to their 16% from 2007. In case you hadn’t noticed, Wageningen is a fairly left-leaning city.

23:57 – Arnhem, Delft and Rotterdam are in:
ARNHEM: PvdA remains largest with a small negative swing. Only real movement here is D66 doing very well again, up 9% to 13% and fourth place, the SP losing several percentage points and therefore being replaced by the VVD in second place. CDA humiliated once again, reduced to single figures, and the PVV polling 10%.
DELFT: D66 has exploded back to top the poll with 18.5%, PvdA in second with 18%, followed by the VVD at 16%, and with the PVV, SP and GroenLinks polling 10%.
ROTTERDAM: Big story here is that the PVV has come in second with 16.7%; PvdA still the largest on 24% – managing to increase its vote by a percent. Heavy losses to the CDA and SP, strong gains for D66. I think the PvdA would be feeling somewhat relieved, as there would have been concern that the PVV could poll over 20% here.

0:05 – Den Haag has come in (The Hague), and it will be interesting to see how well the PVV does here considering its strong showing at council elections last year. The PvdA remains the largest party with a small positive swing to 22.5%, and the PVV has come in third with 14.7%, well behind VVD with 19.8%. D66 pops up to fourth on 11.8%, with the usual story elsewhere.

0:12 – The PVV have topped the poll in another two Limburg councils: Venlo and Sittard-Geelen. They are currently predicted to gain 11 seats with 21.5% of the vote, beating CDA which is currently at 10 seats and 18.3% in what was once fairly safe territory for them. Haarlem is the latest large city to report in, but the story there is the same as in other cities: PvdA holds the top spot, gains for D66, losses for others, etc. What is interesting is that SP is doing badly in the cities, but still holding strong in the eastern areas of the country, suggesting a retreat to their base after the spectacular results of the last election cycle.

0:16 – Two cities I’m always interested in have just reported: Groningen and Nijmegen.
GRONINGEN: PvdA remains largest by far with 24.2%, D66 pips SP to the post for second (the latter lost 5%, the former gained 9%), VVD in fourth with a small increase, and GroenLinks drops to fifth with a loss of 2.3%. The PVV has only managed 5% and the CDA has been reduced to 6.3%
NIJMEGEN: Arguably the most left-wing city in the country, and this hasn’t changed: the SP topped the poll last time but has been hit hard, allowing the PvdA to reclaim first place even with a slight swing against them. Still, SP’s result of 17% is one of their better showings. D66 has increased their vote fivefold to come in third with just under 15%, GroenLinks in fourth with just over 14%, and VVD gains a percent to come in fifth place with 12.2%. Remarkably the PVV managed 7% here.

0:37 – The lay of the land is certainly in for a major shake-up. Here’s a map of the Netherlands after the last provincial elections in 2007, with each council area filled in with the colour of highest-polling party there:

As we saw in the council and national elections, the green bits (CDA) will receed, to be replaced by whatever colour they use for the PVV, and expect to see more of the SP red and SGP yellow. The PvdA pink will probably expand, more out of being the last one standing than anything else.

Here’s what the map looked like after the 2010 national elections, to give you an idea of where the changes may occur (beware the slightly different colour scheme):

0:43 – Still some results trickling in; about 63% of the votes have been counted, even though only a third of council areas have reported in. Time to look at the predicted Senate make-up:

CDA: 11 (-10)
VVD: 16 (+2)
PvdA: 15 (+1)
PVV: 10 (+10)
SP: 8 (-4)
GL: 4 (–)
CU: 2 (-2)
D66: 6 (+4)
PvdD: 1 (–)
SGP: 1 (-1)
50+: 1 (+1)
OSF: 0 (-1)

It’s looking more and more certain that the Independents have lost their Senate seat, held since 1995. I can’t help but be saddened by this, as the seat represented a variety of interests that would otherwise rarely be heard at the national level. However, the Friesian National Party seems to have lost at least one seat in Friesland’s provincial parliament, and given that many of the other regional parties only had one seat in their respective parliaments, only a few need to drop out and the number needed to retain that Senate seat suddenly becomes unattainable.

0:57 – Utrecht has just come in, and it’s another “win” for the PvdA at 19.7%, despite a strong challenge from D66 at 17.3%. GroenLinks rounds out the top three with a slight drop to 17%, and the VVD not far off at 16.5%. The PVV has managed 7.7% here.

I haven’t mentioned the 50+ party much, but they’ve been consistently polling 2-3% or there abouts across the country (with a current best of 9.2% in Haaksbergen, which should be enough to win a seat in many of the provincial parliaments, and therefore eventually a seat in the Senate.

1:07 – Maastricht, the capital of Limburg (and a very nice city if I may say so myself) has held out against the PVV to an extent: while the PvdA came first with 18.8%, Geert Wilders’ party was not far off, coming in second on 16.6%. Once again the CDA and SP suffered heavy losses, and D66 managed almost 10%, being the only party to increase its vote.

1:09 – It’s worth noting that if the current predicted make-up of the Senate is accurate, the CDA / VVD + PVV coalition would have 38 seats, the smallest majority possible. This is what they’ve been aiming for, so it would be a big win for them, and a heavy loss to the left-wing parties who have tried to work together as much as possible in order to prevent this. It is still possible that the CDA could lose another seat, but given that most of the major cities have reported in and its still on 12 seats, the governing coalition might just have crossed the finishing line.

1:15 – Here’s Leiden, and a resurgent D66 has edged ahead of the PvdA in votes to take top spot, both parties on 18.8%, with no other significant results. Haren has also reported its results, and my previous council of residence has kept the VVD in first place with a small positive swing to 22.8%, followed by the PvdA at 18.6%, CDA at 12.7% and D66 at 11.2%. As in much of the northern provinces, the PVV has polled well below the national average, managing 5.4% here.

1:26 – I’m looking at the list of councils which haven’t reported in yet, and the ones I’ll hang around for include the cities of Deventer, Leeuwarden, Almere and Tilburg.

Results from Lelystad, the capital of Flevoland, the twelfth province which was created a few decades ago with reclaimed land, see the VVD (22.6%) easily  retain top position, but the PvdA (18.9%) has held off a challenge from the PVV (16%) for second place. The SP is the only other party which managed to poll in double-digits at 10.5% (down from 18.2% in 2007).

1:40 – Leeuwarden, the capital of Friesland, has stayed PvdA with the social democrats polling 30%. VVD in second with 13.1%, and the SP has still polled a respectable 11.6% despite losing almost 3%. The CDA’s horror-run continues as it drops 7% to 9.5%. GroenLinks and PVV are tied on 8.2%.

1:48 – Tilburg and Almere:
TILBURG: Being a southern city, I guess it’s to be expected that the PVV will do fairly well here, and they come in fourth with 12.9% behind VVD at 18%, PvdA at 17% and SP at 14.7%. It’s a disappointing result for SP, who won Tilburg last time with 25%.
ALMERE: In last year’s council elections, the PVV came first, but there is no repeat of this here, although Wilders’ can be pleased with 18.5% and third place behind VVD (23.4%) and PvdA (19.6%). Big losses to the SP and CDA here as well.

It’s easy to overlook the SP in the frenzy of the CDA’s numbers being cut in half, but the SP will lose one-third of their 12 Senators, and this is because of their relatively poor results in the cities.

1:53 – Here comes Deventer, which hosts a gigantic book market each year, complete with a street made-up to look like something from a Charles Dickens novel. In any case, the PvdA has actually increased their vote by 2% here to easily retain first place with over 27%. The VVD (17.2%) has moved into second with the demise of the CDA, who are tied with D66 in third on 11% a loss of 10% since 2007.

2:00 – It looks like the battle for the final Senate seat will come down to a CDA vs GroenLinks contest. This is all very speculative, as we don’t know which way the remaining independents will vote once it is clear they cannot retain their seat. Either way, if this is the case, this will make all the difference: if GroenLinks wins that seat, the current government won’t have a majority in the Senate; if the CDA wins the seat, the government will.

2:50 – It looks like we’re more or less done with the results for now, so a quick overview before I sign-off, starting with turnout, which looks to be up over the 50% mark after 46.3% in 2007, indicating that some people grasped the importance of these particular provincial elections.

* The winners: VVD, PVV, D66, 50+ and possibly GroenLinks. The losers are the CDA, CU, SGP, SP, and the OSF. No change for the PvdA and PvdD.

* We won’t know the exact make-up of the new Senate until 23 May, which is when the provincial MPs will elect the Senators.

* I haven’t had time to look at each provincial parliament in depth, but a quick glance indicates that the PVV will be the largest party in Limburg with 20% of the vote. The provinces of Groningen, Friesland, Overijssel and Drenthe were the only ones where the PVV failed to poll at least 10%, although they came close in Drenthe with 9.8%. Groningen was the least PVV-friendly (7.7%), but even there Wilders’ party outpolled GroenLinks (7.2%) and almost outpolled D66 (7.8%), meaning that it will still be a significant player in the Groningen provincial parliament. However, it will have a much greater impact in provinces like Zeeland, Limburg, Noord Brabant and Zuid Holland where the PVV is one of the largest parties, if not the largest party.

Only time will tell.

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